Usage gap, coverage gap, and two kinds of growth

These figures are not an Africa Flying measurement. They are GSMA figures for about 2025 to 2026, plus the ambition GSMA and the Partnership for Digital Access in Africa have stated. Outcomes depend on policy, investment, device costs, and economic conditions.

• Overall internet usage penetration is roughly 36 percent, against about 74 percent globally.
• Mobile internet penetration is around 28 percent at the end of 2025.
• Absolute mobile internet users are in the range of about 430 to 450 million, building on an earlier figure of about 416 million in 2024.
• The usage gap, people covered by mobile broadband who are not using it, is about 906 million people, about 60 percent of the population.
• The coverage gap, people outside mobile broadband, is about 8 to 9 percent, about 122 million people.

The stated ambition is to connect 1 billion people by 2030. An earlier forecast pointed toward about 915 million mobile unique subscribers by 2030. 5G connections are described as reaching roughly 100 million by the end of 2026 and over 380 million by 2030. Precise published forecasts for 2036 are limited. With population near 1.95 billion, even a modest further gain in penetration would add a large number of users in absolute terms, because the base population is growing quickly.

Horizontal growth means more people connected. The near-term work is the usage gap: affordable phones, data, relevant local content, digital skills, electricity, and trust, plus the remaining rural coverage. Vertical growth means deeper use among people already connected: more data per person, the move from basic phones and older networks toward smartphones and 4G or 5G, and a wider set of activities such as fintech, commerce, agricultural information, government services, education, and software tools. Many current users do only a narrow set of things. Deeper use can raise the value of each connection even when the headline penetration rate moves slowly.

Through 2036 the opportunity described in these sources is both: turn coverage into use, and make that use more frequent and more useful. The barriers named are device affordability, skills, relevant services, and reliable power.

Source: GSMA Intelligence, Advancing digital connectivity in Africa, together with GSMA Mobile Economy Africa and State of Mobile Internet Connectivity analyses from 2025 and 2026. The population note is the UN projection.